NCAAF

preseason

The NCAAF model projects moneyline winners, margins, and totals using CollegeFootballData.com's real historical results and Elo ratings. Held-out 2025 backtest: 72.1% moneyline accuracy against a 59.1% baseline. The 2026 season hasn't kicked off yet (opens Aug 29) - the board below shows real Week 1 predictions plus live sportsbook odds for the opening slate.

View live NCAAF standings →

Week 1 model board · 2026

Generated 8/6/2026, 10:29:25 AM.

Backtest (2025 season, 760 games)

72.1% vs 59.1% baseline

Live odds unavailable: Live odds are temporarily paused site-wide to control API usage. Model picks below are unaffected.

Sat, Aug 29, 4:00 PMno live odds match yet

Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland

UNC

TCU

⭐ TCU ML 78.4%

Model margin (home): +15.3 · total 55

Live moneyline

— / —

Live total

not posted

North Carolina roster · TCU roster

Sat, Aug 29, 7:00 PMno live odds match yet

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

SJSU

USC

⭐ USC ML 88.6%

Model margin (home): +28.4 · total 55.7

Live moneyline

— / —

Live total

not posted

San José State roster · USC roster

Sat, Aug 29, 7:30 PMno live odds match yet

Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA

NCSU

UVA

⭐ Virginia ML 68.2%

Model margin (home): +6.8 · total 54.8

Live moneyline

— / —

Live total

not posted

NC State roster · Virginia roster

Sat, Aug 29, 11:00 PMno live odds match yet

Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL

NMSU

FSU

⭐ Florida State ML 78.2%

Model margin (home): +18.3 · total 55.3

Live moneyline

— / —

Live total

not posted

New Mexico State roster · Florida State roster

Sat, Aug 29, 11:00 PMno live odds match yet

Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA

HAW

STAN

⭐ Stanford ML 53.5%

Model margin (home): +0.2 · total 54.9

Live moneyline

— / —

Live total

not posted

Hawai'i roster · Stanford roster

Margin/total predictions are meaningfully less accurate than the moneyline pick (documented in ncaaf-model's README) - weight moneyline higher than the point numbers. Venue is the real scheduled site for that specific game (correctly reflects neutral-site games, not just each team's usual home stadium); weather is live conditions at that venue's city, omitted for indoor/dome venues.

Informational only, not betting advice. Model predictions and sportsbook prices are separate sources; a displayed model probability is not a guarantee.